Deep, dangerous avalanches are getting harder to trigger... but let's not take our eyes off the prize-
While not widespread, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exists on steep, upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are LIKELY.
Mid elevation terrain is right on the cusp where a rogue piece of snow will break deeper and wider than you might anticipate. Expect MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, shady mid elevation slopes where human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on south facing terrain at and below treeline and low elevation shady slopes.
Yesterday, I noted a few natural cornice releases on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, as a result of strong Wednesday night winds
Wind drifts sensitive to our additional weight linger on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Lose the wind and you lose the problem.
It's increasingly clear... there's a light at the end of the Persistent Weak Layer tunnel-
So... is it open season? Man, I think we are getting so close and the recent series of storms is a huge test. While the snowpack appears Herculean and for the most part unreactive, as I begin stepping into big terrain I know it's not entirely impossible the trigger a deep slide. All I need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on me. Likely suspects include steep, rocky terrain or slopes that avalanched earlier this season that have remained thin and slightly weaker. It's a low probability/high consequence scenario. And unless you've got avalanche goggles and can peer into the layers of the snowpack from a distance, now is the time to start stepping out cautiously, gathering as much snowpack intel as we can along the way.
Thanks Joel O'Rourke for snapping this image of a large natural avalanche in Upper Mill Fork. Looks like this slide broke to the midpack PWL and most likely occurred in the early morning hours of January 11th when winds shifted to the west-northwest.
A slew of additional Uinta avy obs are foundHERE.
Nowcast- The ridge of high pressure slides east today, allowing a few high clouds to drift into the region early this morning.Registering in the mid and upper 20's, temperatures are about ten degrees warmer this morning than at this time yesterday. Southerly winds blow 10-20 mph along the high ridges. Yesterday's warm temps and strong sun left a zipper crust on the solar aspects, but the polars are cold and creamy. On a go-anywhere base, the Uinta's are white, the range is phat, and riding conditions are as good as it gets.
Forecast- Look for partly sunny skies with temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. Clouds thicken as the day wares on and southerly winds bump into the 40's by about dinnertime.
Futurecast- A weak storm slides into the region Saturday, ushering in scattered snow showers. A stronger, more prolonged stormy stretch begins Sunday, continuing through midweek.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
Issued at 03:33 on Friday January 13th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Satuday January 14th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
