Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain where you find cohesive slabs on top of weak faceted and depth hoar snow below. The most dangerous slopes will be found at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects, which will also be the most enticing to want to ski or ride, as other aspects have melted back to bare ground or have little snow on them. Take the time to dig a quick pit to assess if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists, or stick to slopes less than 35 degrees.    

Warm temperatures and intense sun will rapidly warm slopes and bring a threat for wet snow avalanches on our solar aspects. Watch for wet gloppy snow, roller balls or pinwheels as these are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet. These types of avalanches typically start out small around rocks and quickly fan out, entraining more snow as it travels down the slope. If you notice the snow surface becoming wet, or you're sinking in past your boot tops, head to a shadier aspect or think about calling it a day.    

February is going to end just like it began with warm weather forecasted over the next couple of days. The last week has felt more like April as spring like weather has settled in for us. During the first warm-up earlier in the week that brought record-breaking temperatures to northern NM, we had several natural loose wet snow avalanches on solar aspects but didn't observe any wet slab avalanche activity. We tend to look for rain on snow events or 48 hours above freezing before seeing wet slab avalanches form. Overnight temperatures in the next several days are expected to drop below freezing, but with crusts and weak layers so close to the surface, wet slab avalanches may not be out of the question over the next couple of days as water percolates deeper down into the snowpack. It's been a weird winter, with a very shallow, weak snowpack for this time of year, and we may see difficult to forecast for wet slab avalanches. 

Hopefully everyone is getting out on the river, biking or climbing as skiing and riding conditions are less than ideal right now in the backcountry. This warm-up over the last week has taken its toll on an already shallow and thin snowpack. Crusts have formed on east, west and south aspects that aren't already down to bare ground. Trailheads have melted out, making hitting rocks and travel difficult. You can still find some "softish" snow on north aspects, where at lower elevations will be some depth hoar swimming and at upper elevations means playing with our persistent slab problem.   

Well-developed widespread weak layers of faceted crusts and depth hoar that formed from the long dry period that has been much of our winter haven't gotten the message that it's an early spring here. They continue to remain cold, dry and very weak. The widespread cracking and collapsing that was happening last week has slowly diminished, but the overall poor snowpack structure of strong over weak continues to exist, especially at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects. These are also the slopes that have enough snow on them to ski and ride, which forces you into this terrain automatically. Without a doubt, if we had more users in our mountains, we'd have more reports of human triggered avalanches over the last week. This snowpack is one of the worst setups I've seen this late into the season, and definitely one I do not trust to get out onto steep slopes. Expect the slope you want to ride has this strong over weak snowpack structure, and confirm otherwise by digging a quick pit. 

Two big storms in October and early November have brought most of our moisture this season. This 2 to 3 feet of snow that remained on the ground on north and east aspects has turned into very weak depth hoar and facets that are widespread. That last little uptick was the Valentine's Day storm which came in with 1.2 -1.4" of SWE and strong winds building cohesive slabs on top of these weak layers. (2/27/2025) Photo: Taos Avalanche Center 

Don't expect, that because it feels like April, that springtime avalanche conditions exist. Our persistent weak layers are still in mid-winter form right now. There is hope at least in recent model runs for a more active weather pattern for the next couple of weeks. Moisture right now for the first two systems doesn't look to be overly impressive, bringing more wind than snow. But with a lack of winter this season, any moisture will be greatly appreciated as we start heading to fire season.