Northern New Mexico

New snow and wind have created storm slabs, especially near and above treeline where east winds have drifted snow. New snow has fallen on a variety of different surfaces and may not be bonding well to old snow interface.  The most dangerous slopes will be where you find over 8 inches of new snow.  Triggering a smaller avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers. Faceted crusts and buried near surface facets are widespread and found in the upper portions of the snowpack and will be the most likely weak layer to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. These avalanches could break widely across the slope and may break well above you. Deeper down in the snowpack, facets and depth hoar continue to linger in shallow snowpacks and would produce a large avalanche that could take with it most of the season's snowpack.  Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered slopes will provide safer skiing and riding options today.      

There's a bit of uncertainty with weather stations down this morning but early reports are roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow at upper elevations with moderate east winds that are drifting snow. The National Weather Service has us under a Winter Storm Warning through the day with an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow forecasted. The upper-low continues to remain well to our west in southern California this morning and is in no hurry to move east as it's cut off from the jetstream.  This will keep rounds of snow in the forecast through Wednesday before the low finally gets ejected into Texas and Oklahoma. This prolonged storm isn't expected to provide a singular wallop of snow but will be incrementally loading slopes with rounds of snow that by the time the system does make its exit Wednesday, we could see snow totals over 2 feet. The weather forecast remains dynamic as models are struggling to pin down overall snow totals so stay tuned.

New snow concerns will be the most obvious avalanche problem and we expect to find more reactive storm slabs near and above treeline, where moderate to strong east winds are drifting snow into stiffer more reactive slabs. These slabs may fail at the old snow interface on slick smooth crusts on solar aspects or near-surface facets on wind-sheltered northerly aspects. These avalanches would be small but could step down into weak layers in the top 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack.  

The main persistent weak layers of concern are buried near surface facets and faceted crusts in the upper portions of the snowpack that formed during the dry periods at the middle to end of February and early March. These layers are widespread across most aspects and all elevations. These weak layers have been producing easy results in extended column tests with planar failures.  We haven't been observing cracking and collapsing in travels, but with additional loading and slab development, these warning signs may become more present.  Even if you don't observe these warning signs, take the time to dig a pit on the slope you plan to play on  

Deeper down in the snowpack, the early January drought facet layer and depth hoar near the ground continue to remain present in shallow snowpacks but have been lying dormant as we haven't seen a significant loading event in over a month.  These layers may become more reactive with loading and slab formation, but it's hard to gauge how much it will take.  This prolonged storm will be incrementally loading slopes through Wednesday so we could see these layers become more problematic this weekend as snow continues to accumulate. An avalanche that fails on these weak layers would be large potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.   

 This should be a decent period of storm skiing and riding over the next 5 days, as we won't see much sun and snow in the forecast through at least next Wednesday.  This will help preserve  But with that will come an increase in avalanche danger and changing conditions.  Conservative decision-making and cautious route-finding are essential.  Assess each slope individually as complex and challenging avalanche conditions exist.