Lawinenlagebericht

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
Auf der Karte ansehen

Lawinengefahr

Fri
Hochgebirge
3 · Erheblich
Waldgrenze
3 · Erheblich
Unterhalb
2 · Mässig
Open full map
Veraltet — dieser Lagebericht ist 6 years ago abgelaufen. Du siehst vergangene Verhältnisse, nicht den aktuellen Bericht.

Kernpunkte

2 feet of snow over the last several days and an increase in wind today should help stiffen and thicken slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  With increased loading, we are inching closer to a potential tipping point of weak faceted layers deeper down in the snowpack.  A smaller storm slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating larger more dangerous persistent slab avalanche.  Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding are essential today.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees today.  

Lawinenprobleme

  • Storm Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Likely
    Größe
    1–2

    Close to 2 feet of snow has fallen over the last five days with very little wind.  Today winds will pick up and easily be able to transport the abundance of snow that's available for transport.  An increase in winds should help stiffen and thicken these storm slabs near and above treeline, where storm slabs could be upwards of 3 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  

    Pay attention to changes in the snow surface like stiffening of the snow surface and obvious wind drifted pillows. Clues like shooting cracks off of your boards are another indication that these slabs have gained cohesiveness and may be able to propagate.  A smaller storm slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weaker layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

    A small storm slab avalanche from Feb 14.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    2–3

    Over the last five days, we've added close to 2 feet of snow with over 1.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Deeper faceted weak layers continue to linger in the snowpack and have been showing signs of healing and strengthening but still show signs of being reactive with moderate to hard force. An increase in winds today should continue to load slopes especially near and above treeline inching us closer to a potential tipping point. The snowpack right now is incredible variable with snowpack depths varying greatly across slopes.  Shallower snowpacks including those below treeline continue to remain incredibly weak and faceted and now have 2-foot storm slabs on top.  Deeper snowpacks (2 + meters) can be found above treeline where faceted weak layers will be more difficult to trigger unless you hit a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner.

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    New storm snow formed on variety of different surfaces from crusts to hard wind packed slabs. We continue to find faceted layers underneath these slab/crust combinations which may be faceted weak layer of concern.

Avalanche Discussion

It's been an active last five days with a series of three storms hitting northern New Mexico leaving us with close to 2 feet of snow over 1.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Amazingly, winds have been calm during these storms leading to good powder skiing! Winds should increase a little throughout the day today into Friday.  With all the new snow still available for transport, we can expect to see slabs continue to build and loading slopes.  With an increase in winds, we may see an increase in avalanche activity near and above treeline. 

We've only observed a couple of natural storm slab and loose snow avalanches over the last couple of days with limited visibility. Due to the lack of winds, long-running loose snow avalanches in steep terrain are a concern and may be big enough to push you around or potentially bury you in a terrain trap.  Surprisingly we haven't seen avalanches break down into deeper weak layers, which would be the first significant storm of the season not to produce large persistent slab avalanches. Clearly, we haven't reached the tipping point, but how close are we? 

It's hard to fully trust the snowpack right now, slopes below and near treeline, remain shallow with weak facets that have been slower to heal but may lack a cohesive enough of a slab to be able to propagate across the slope.  With increased winds and loading as well as stiffening slabs avalanche danger will be slow to ease as the snowpack continues to adjust to this most recent load.  Although we have two avalanche problems listed in storm slabs and persistent slabs, it might be easier to think of them as one overall problem.  Cohesive slabs where we've seen the greatest loading are also the slopes that will be most suspect for triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche.      

Unfortunately, it continues to be a tough month for avalanche fatalities with several additional accidents over the past week. We are approaching that time of year where I think a lot of us are used to finally being able to, or at least looking forward to, expanding into the terrain we've been staring at all winter. The temptation is especially difficult when we just received close to two feet of powder! Let's allow our poor snowpack structure to play its hand regarding this new load before we step out into consequential terrain. Stay safe out there gang!

Abgedeckte Regionen