Lawinenlagebericht

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Sun
Hochgebirge
2 · Mässig
Waldgrenze
2 · Mässig
Unterhalb
2 · Mässig
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Kernpunkte

On Friday night, expect rain to soak our mountains well into the upper elevation band, resulting in natural wet avalanche activity. With a well-documented weak snowpack, this storm will add more uncertainty to a problem that is difficult to predict. Avoid steep open slopes where large avalanches are more likely to occur.

Lawinenprobleme

  • Loose Wet

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    1–2

    All but the upper volcanoes are expected to get rain on Friday night. So by Saturday morning, you'll likely find a saturated surface and the potential for wet slides.

    You may be able to push wet snow on steep slopes, or natural slides could occur. If blobs of snow fall from rocky ledges or a sagging cornice collapses, these slides could be large or even result in slabs pulling out on the slopes below. 

    Any triggered wet slide will be heavy and hard to maneuver away from if you get caught. So be leery of steep slopes where these slides can get a head of steam and barrel downhill, especially near terrain traps.

    (1/18/2026)

    Example: A mix of wet avalanche problems from earlier this season.  Rain runnels, loose activity,  and two slabs that likely failed when snow shed from rocks or cornices collapsed above. Expect similar conditions this weekend.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Possible
    Größe
    1.5–2.5

    Our weak snowpack structure has shown signs of improvement over the past week, but it is still in place throughout the zone. With a good shot of rain coming our way, if this problem is going to roar back to life, this may be the time.

    If water reaches the 2/13 or 2/7, these weak layers could fail like a wet slab. Or another avalanche, like the ones mentioned above, could stress these weak layers, resulting in a secondary slide. 

    Until we either wipe this problem out with rain or cool down to build a burly crust over the weak layers, we can't quite write it off, so give large, steep slopes a wide berth where these slides are more likely to be very large and dangerous.

    (3/5/2026)

    A snowprofile in the Crystal area highlighting the most recent snow, a developing crust in the upper snowpack, and our persistent weak layers down below.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

We expect a natural wet avalanche cycle to occur Friday night as the rain soaks our snowpack up to ridgecrest in most areas. High on the volcanoes, precipitation may fall as snow along with strong winds. You could encounter dry snow problems in these areas on Saturday.

The biggest question will be how much natural activity occurs on Saturday once the rain calms down. Will our persistent weak layers become activated, resulting in very large and destructive slides? If you see any activity that indicates this is the case, realize that the mountains are dangerous and you should avoid all avalanche terrain.

The general thought is that we'll be in a lull for much of the day Saturday as we ramp up for another big shot of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. As stability and freezing levels fluctuate throughout the weekend, realize that conditions are dynamic and we have an unconventional upper snowpack structure. Unusual weather could lead to unusual avalanches, so make conservative terrain choices and use good travel techniques.

The rain certainly won't help our snowpack, which is already thin for this time of the season. Especially at lower elevations, natural hazards continue to exist throughout the landscape.

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