Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist for shallow slabs of wind drifted snow on many aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Owing to yesterday's northeast winds, look for unusual wind loading patterns.
The danger will trend toward LOW by the afternoon.
Pockets of lingering slabs of wind blown snow will be littered across the compass at the mid and upper elevations. Don't discount the lower elevation bands either. Be on the lookout for drifts with unusual loading patterns, owing to yesterday's moderate to strong NE winds. Shooting cracks are indicators of localized instability.
Forecaster's Corner: This forecast was a difficult one. Avalanche danger is a function of many things: sensitivity, size, distribution, and character.
I do think that many of yesterday's slabs of wind blown snow will have settled out and become less sensitive...but if I were heading into the mountains today, I would be approaching any steep terrain and rollover as if it held a shallow wind slab. And I would not make any associations: this piece of terrain was stable, therefore the next similar slope will be stable as well. I would bump my plans for the "extreme" terrain to tomorrow or early weekend.
Maybe I'm just getting old and more cautious. I know what it looks like when things go wrong.
Nothing good comes from an east wind. The north to east (from the north and east) winds tormented even the low elevations and people found sensitive, albeit pockety, conditions even in the low elevation bands just under 8000'. Extensive down canyon winds also triggered some avalanches, with powderclouds roaring down some of the steepest (do people use the word Extreme anymore?) north facing couloirs in lower LCC. One person ascending Coalpit 4 was caught and carried 150' and lost gear but was otherwise ok. His partner was briefly caught but not carried (Report).
Ski area avalanche teams triggered spotty and shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow on a variety of aspects and elevations and this was mirrored by activity in the backcountry. A few examples below:
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Cold mountain.
Skies are clear.
Mountain temperatures are just below zero at most locations. Wind chill at 10,000' is -23°F.
Winds, mercifully, have lost steam and are blowing 10-15mph from the north-northwest. At 11,000', hourly averages are 20mph with gusts to 35.
Today's weather will be clear and cold. Mountain temperature will slowly struggle into the low teens. Winds will be light from the northwest.
High pressure briefly builds across the area through tomorrow and Saturday with a cut-off Low pressure system diving well to the south. The northern branch of the split-flow system will graze northern Utah Saturday night and produce a couple inches of snow. Another disturbance moves through on this northwest flow Sunday night into early Monday. These, mind you, are just setting the table for what looks to be a significant and complex weather system for early/mid next week. It's still a few days away and a number of details will become more clear, but it initially looks wet, warm, and windy. It has my attention.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
