Very large deep slab avalanches continue to be a substantial threat. Evidence of recent natural deep slab avalanche releases were reported to have been observed on Cody Bowl yesterday and off of Mt. Taylor the day before. A snowmobile remotely triggered a three foot deep slab in the drainage above Ski Lake yesterday. Similar events are possible today. Several close calls occurred on Saturday. Surface slabs one to three feet in depth caused by four days of strong winds also present a hazard at the mid and upper elevations and in isolated terrain features at the lower elevations. Expert avalanche hazard assessment and route finding skills are essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain today.
Wind slabs formed by southwest to west-northwest winds could be human triggered with depths from one to three feet on a variety of aspects.
Deep slabs lie upon a hard October rain crust and a persistent weak layer. These very dangerous slides could be triggered by the weight of a person or release naturally with depths to six feet. Surviving one of these slides is unlikely.
Skies are forecast to be mostly cloudy overnight and into the morning hours. A winter storm watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for the period from noon on Wednesday through 5 PM on Friday. Snowfall is expected to develop in the afternoon and increase in the evening. Temperatures will be in the single digits overnight and rise into the teens. Winds will back to the southwest ahead of this approaching storm and increase to 25 with gusts to 35 miles per hour. Large to very large deep slab avalanches continue to be a serious hazard at the upper elevations. These dangerous slides could be triggered by the weight of a single person even after an avalanche starting zone or slide path has been crossed multiple times by others. Winds slabs one to three feet in depth could also be human triggered in steep wind loaded avalanche starting zones at the mid and upper elevations. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be CONSIDERABLE at the upper elevations, MODERATE at the mid elevations and LOW at the lower elevations.
