The potential for wet snow avalanches will rise this morning with incoming rain. As temperatures slowly lower today so will the likelihood of a wet snow avalanche. There is some uncertainty around the distribution of the persistent weak layers at upper elevations. Conservative travel and terrain management are still warranted in steep terrain and in runout zones above 5500’.
With recent warm temperatures and no overnight re-freeze the snow remains wet and lacks cohesion. Additional precipitation, starting out as rain today, will keep the potential for wet snow avalanches on the table in steep terrain today. Areas near cliff bands and in confined gully features that pose the greatest threat.
Triggering an avalanche on buried weak layers is becoming less likely. This hazard may still be found on northerly aspects above 6500’ in the Purcell’s and East Cabinets where water has not penetrated to the bottom of the snowpack. Avoid likely trigger points including large open starting zones and convex features in steep terrain to reduce exposure to this problem.
Avalanche hazard has steadily diminished over the last few days. With the onset of additional precipitation, starting out as rain, the snow will be taking on additional weight today and into the weekend. Wet snow and persistent slab avalanches can be unpredictable and hard to anticipate so a conservative mindset is still warranted if you venture into steep terrain.
Below 5000’ there is very low snow cover and an abundance of exposed brush and down logs and trees. On the approach yesterday the snow was a mix of supportable to rotten and very wet throughout. Bushwhacking and dryland skiing made for a longer than average approach. The lack of snow will make it unlikely for a large avalanche to reach the valley floor. Several wet loose slides that released earlier in the week were observed in the East Cabinets yesterday, but none were able to extend to lower slopes.
We are again at “low tide” snow conditions and lack of a supportable base brings both buried and unburied hazards very much into the picture during approaches and exits. If you venture out today bring a rain jacket and self-preservation mindset. Better riding conditions should be coming this weekend.
