Lawinenlagebericht

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Lawinengefahr

Hochgebirge
1 · Gering
Waldgrenze
1 · Gering
Unterhalb
1 · Gering
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Kernpunkte

Winds will shift to the northwest today, keeping the snow surface cold and the chance of wet avalanche problems low.   To fully minimize your risk, move to a less sunny aspect if you encounter soft, slushy, or wet snow.   Frozen slopes and low-snow related travel conditions may be today's greatest hazard. 

Lawinenprobleme

  • Loose Wet

    • Hochgebirge
    • Waldgrenze
    • Unterhalb der Waldgrenze
    Wahrscheinlichkeit
    Unlikely
    Größe
    1–1.5

    Moderate winds with strong gusts out of the northwest should minimize the potential for wet loose avalanches.  Like yesterday, there is still a slight possibility that a skier or rider on a protected south facing steep slope could trigger a wet loose avalanche.  Such an event would be small, but could cause a fall in steep, and potentially consequential terrain.

    Chances of wet loose avalanches will be low on southerly slopes below treeline, as snow cover in these areas has been reduced to mere patches or is very thin.  More polar (northwesterly, northerly, northeasterly) slopes near and above treeline will probably remain too cool to produce wet instabilities.

    Wet loose problems are a springtime commonality.   When surfaces become saturated, they lose cohesion and can move down the slope, aggregating surface snow as they gain momentum.  While not a slab avalanche, like the type of avalanche that is culpable for numerous fatalities each season, wet loose avalanches in spring do indicate a warming of the snowpack, and could be a harbinger for more serious problems, such as wet slabs.  In larger mountain ranges in the West, such as the Sierra or the Wasatch, it's not uncommon for wet slab avalanches, or some medium between the two, to be a regular springtime event.  Multiple nights of above freezing temperatures are an indicator that slopes could be losing cohesion and that wet slabs are a potential.  When enjoying the warmer and longer days of March, April, and May, remember to consider the potential for this problem.

    (5/4/2024)

    Small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from the 2023-2024 season.

Avalanche Discussion

According to the temperature gauge on the 11,500' weather instrumentation, overnight temperatures reached freezing last night--a first in the last few days.  These colder temperatures, along with moderate to strong winds, have likely frozen yesterday's snowpack, meaning snow surfaces will take some time and less windy conditions to soften today.  The general wind direction shifted overnight from southwest to northwest and is expected to settle out by the afternoon.   If you are looking for springtime corn, west surfaces could be a potential today, but they may not soften until the late afternoon.  With regards to avalanche hazard, these winds and relatively cooler temperatures (relative to the 60-degree-F high forecast for later this week) will keep today's avalanche hazard low.   There's a chance winds may settle out sooner than expected.  If so, remember to use your powers of observation, and if you encounter slushy snow and are sinking into the snowpack, consider changing your plans and seeking out a less-warm slope with snow that's not overly saturated. 

Most slopes with rideable snow coverage are now isolated islands.  Accessing these snow islands may require multiple transitions and extensive travel on dry trails or slopes, i.e., bring your hiking shoes. With a frozen melt/freeze surface in the mornings and patches of exposed Holiday Ice Layer, it remains wise to pack ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and, at the very least, an ice axe or whippet pole attachment.  Knowing how to use this equipment and enjoying the efficient travel and protection it provides during early morning melt-freeze conditions is a great part of springtime freedom in the mountains.

Persistent Weak Layers (PWLs) can still be found both above and below the Holiday Ice Lens in specific locations.  Stability tests over the last week and a half have shown reduced propagation in this layer, and without additional load, it is extremely unlikely that these layers will become reactive.  

Although we have yet to reach the spring equinox (March 20th), from a coverage perspective, the forecast area has transitioned from spring-like conditions to an environment that, in some ways, resembles summer?!  While the snowpack remains cold above 10,800 ft., and has yet to go isothermic, about every snow surface is present in these May-like conditions.  Be prepared for anything.  And yes, even soft snow can still be found on cooler, protected north facing aspects. Check out these recent observations. If you find yourself in the backcountry, consider submitting a post-trip observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated and help keep the dream alive!

Good News!  The Mikee Linville Spring fundraiser will take place on Saturday, March 28th, on the Agassiz Deck!  Come support your local avalanche center and join us for this event!!  Sadly, if this dry weather pattern with above-average temperatures continues, the next couple of weeks may be the final timeframe for snow-based recreation on the Peaks.  

Northern Arizona locations just experienced the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb (meteorological winter) period on record.  See the info table. In general, warm and dry spring conditions look to dominate the foreseeable future. On March 15, the Snowside Canyon SNOTEL snow depth is just 30," and the SWE total for the season is just 12.6".  

Due to the dry conditions and higher-than-average temperatures, and ultimately, the shrinking snowpack, this will be our last standard forecast until conditions change.  Continue to view the website for general avalanche bulletins, which we plan to issue until the snow fully vaporizes!! 

Here's to all the Flagstown Love and all the support of the local community!!  Thank you!  You all are awesome!!  Check out the media gallery below for a photo montage of the crazy conditions this season.   Just looking back, not saying it's over yet!  

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