Northwest Coastal

Weather models are having a hard time pinning down the details of the incoming storm. Snow, wind, rain and rising temperatures are all possible, and will increase the avalanche danger.

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The Jet stream clips the NW coastal region, while directing the most intense precipitation north of the area. On Thursday and overnight, 5-15 mm precipitation is expected with the freezing level climbing towards 2000 m on Thursday afternoon. Winds become strong from the south. Light snow is expected on Friday, with winds easing to moderate south-westerlies. There is a lull in the weather forecast for Friday night/ Saturday.

A handful of size 1-2 loose wet avalanches failed yesterday on steep solar aspects. Skiers have also triggered a few small wind slabs over the last couple of days. Northeast of Bell 2, a natural avalanche at treeline was observed to have stepped down to the early January surface hoar on Sunday. While this avalanche technically occurred in the Northwest Inland region, it is a good reminder that this layer remains a concern, especially in thin snowpack areas.

Recent strong winds have created wind slabs on a variety of slopes at alpine and treeline elevations. Some solar aspects have a thin sun crust at the surface. In some spots sheltered from the wind and sun, surface hoar has survived. Incoming snow may bond poorly to these surfaces. 40-100 cm of snow sits above a melt freeze crust buried around February 12th. This crust extends up to about 2000 m. Although the snow above is bonding well to this crust in most places, recent snow pit tests northwest of Terrace produced failures on or in facets just below this layer under moderate to hard loads. Below this, a layer of surface hoar buried late in January remains a concern in thin snowpack areas in the east and north of the region. The snowpack in these areas may also sit on a weak base of facets near the ground.